What Should We Expect in the March Hogs and Pigs Report?

USDA’s March Hogs and Pigs report was released Thursday, March 30. Ron Plain, Professor Emeritus, University of Missouri, expected it to say the market hog inventory is slightly larger than a year ago. The December report said the market hog inventory was down 2% for each market weight category. Daily hog slaughter was actually down 4% in December but that was due partially to adverse weather. Since December 1, average daily hog slaughter has been up 0.1% and thus 2% above the level indicated by the December inventory survey.

Ron Plain forecast for the hog inventory in Thursday’s report was: all hogs and pigs up 1.4%, breeding herd up 0.9% and market hogs up 1.5%, year-over-year. His forecast of market hog inventories by weight group was: under 50 pounds up 1.0%, 50-119 pounds up 1.5%, 120-179 pounds up 1.8%, and 180 pounds plus up 1.9%.

Both the June and September Hogs and Pigs reports were amazingly accurate. If slaughter matches my predicted March inventory numbers, hog slaughter will be up 1.7% in April-June and up 1.0% in July-September. 

An increase in hog inventory is not what the industry needs right now. Hog and pork prices have been dismal in recent months. Continue reading HERE.